Updates on Vietnam Trade

Recently, the Customs has published the trade data which January’s trade balance was surplus at USD 860 million, in contrast to the deficit of USD 1 billion in the first half of the month. While the domestic sector’s trade deficit has shrunk, the FDI sector keeps positive. However, trade growth slowed down, highlighted by both of export and import growth. January’s trade data implies some meaningful insights, including 1) Export revenue from Chinese market dropped strongly, 2) Export revenue from North America markets brightened and 3) The rise of Hai Phong and Hai Duong cities on Vietnam’s trade map.

View on US-China Trade Talks

• President Trump mentioned an extension of 60 days for the US-China negotiation as an affirmation that the US is serious about finding a deal with China.
• A comprehensive agreement between the US and China will be difficult to achieve in a short time.

HDB – Update on 2018 Business Performance

Overall, HDBank is still expanding its loan portfolio effectively with the focus on retail and SME segment while operating cost and asset quality are controlled closely. However, it should be noted that the current strategy of HDBank is dependent on credit volume growth, which is very sensitive to the credit tightening policy of SBV. In case the merger with PGBank is approved, it is more likely that the bank will have higher room for credit growth.

Our current target price for HDB is VND34,000, equivalent to a P/B forward of 1.8x. The stock is currently trading at VND30,400 (closing price in Feb 17th), equivalent to a P/B forward of 1.6x. Combined with the expected VND 1,000 cash dividend in the next 12 months, the total expected return is 15.1%. Therefore, we recommend to Accumulate the stock.

GMD – Update 2018 Result and 2019 Forecast

GMD FY2018 financial statements was strongly influenced by capital transfer activities and in line with our expectations.

Updates on HDG

For FY2018, Ha Do (HSX: HDG) recognized accumulated net revenues of VND 3.203 billion (+39% YoY) and net profit after tax of VND 608 billion (+241% YoY). In general, the company fulfilled its full year’s profit guidance propelled by the strong contribution of residential business.

DHG – Update on 2018’s Business Result

Revenue and Net profit in 2018 was VND 3,888 Bn (-4% YoY) and VND 654 Bn (+2% YoY), respectively. EPS 2018 reached VND 4,449 (+2% YoY).

KBC - Leases keep soaring

Kinh Bac City Development Holding Corp (HSX: KBC) released its FY2018 results with net revenue of VND2,506 billion (+99% YoY) and NPATMI of VND747 billion (+28% YoY). The bottom line would increase about 140% YoY if the previous one-off gain, from selling the Lotus, was excluded.

Updates on KDH, DXG and NLG

2018 will be a year for real estate companies as almost firms fulfilled their profit target.

Cement & Clinker: Surfing the ‘export’ wave

According to the Vietnam Customs, in 2018, the export value of cement and clinker has reached USD 1.2 bn, indicating a growth rate of 76% YoY. Besides, the export volume has also recorded a significant increase of 55% YoY, to finish 2018 with 31.6 mn tons.

PAC – Update on 2018’s Business Result

2018 performance witnessed an improvement due to a decline in input material prices. However, competition pressure is still a challenge for PAC.

Yeah1 (YEG) – Update on 2018’s Business Result

YEG had a booming year in 2018, revenue and NPAT reached VND 1,658 bn (+97% yoy) and VND 180 bn (+119% yoy), respectively. Growth engine was the digital media segment, contributing 56% revenue and 84% NPAT, this is the company’s focus with its contribution in sales and NPAT is increasing (Figure 3 and 4). Turning to 2019, YEG’s strategy will be pushing M&A of foreign digital industrial peers as well as improving the efficiency of domestic traditional businesses.

Updates on LHG and NTC

Long Hau JSC (HSX: LHG) released its FY2018 results with net sales of VND430 billion (-12% YoY) and NPAT of VND177 billion (+7% YoY). No new land was leased as its existing zones are fully occupied. Re-lease activities recorded net sales of VND242 billion (-23% YoY) and gross earnings of VND163 billion (-20% YoY). Revenue from warehouse lease increased 23% YoY, to VND84 billion. Gross margin of warehouse leasing was 59% (+700 bps). Higher re-leasing price might contribute to the increase in sales and margin level. There was neither new warehouse space nor leasable land during the year.