Vietnam’s Credit Growth Is Likely To Miss The Annual Target Of 17%

Currently, we see more and more signals of low credit growth in 2018. Furthermore, it is possible that the 17% target set at the beginning of the year will not be met. According to GSO, Vietnam’s credit growth stood at 6.4% YTD at the end of June 2018, lower than the last two years’. In 2018, credit growth is likely to be at 15%-16% YoY, owing in part to a slightly tighter monetary policy. In our view, global changes, including generally tightening monetary policies around the world have been putting pressure on State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). If the FED ended its QEs before normalizing the monetary policy via interest rate hikes and selling securities assets, the credit growth is likely to be lower before rising the interest rates due to changes in the global environment.

Group 5 Seaports Overview

The largest seaport group in Vietnam

Group 5 consists of ports located in key economics zone, South East of Vietnam, such as: Ho Chi Minh city, Vung Tau province, Binh Duong, Dong Nai. As the most important economics zone in Vietnam, this group accounts the largest share in container volume throughput in Vietnam.

MBB - 2Q2018 Business Results Update

This week, MBB has published its 2Q2018 financial statements, announcing a 11.2% YTD growth in loan balance and a PBT of VND3,829bn during 1H2018. Accordingly, MBB has fulfilled 56% of its PBT 2018 guidance so far.

FPT Digital Retail JSC’s Initial Report Release (HSX: FRT)

FPT Retail (FRT) is the second largest mobile phone retailer in Vietnam, after MWG. Its smaller size will allow FRT to expand, although the smartphone market is gradually becoming saturated. Additionally, we believe that F.Friends and Subsidy can make a difference and will partly help FRT maintain its  growth for the next two years.

TCM - Update on 1H2018 Business Result

TCM has published its 1H business result with revenue of VND 1,648 bn (+7%), gross profit achieved VND 291 bn (+15%). However, its NPAT slightly reduced 1% at VND 117 bn. After 1^st half of this year, its revenue and NPAT recorded 52% and 62% of the year guidance, respectively.

TCB- Business Results Update

Yesterday, TCB released its financial statements for 2Q 2018. From the FS, we found that TCB had a thirteen straight quarters of YoY profit growth. It is now considered as the most effective Vietnam commercial bank: the highest ROA (3.2%), the lowest CIR (27.9%), and the highest TOI per employee (VND 2.1 Bn per staff).

PNJ- Updates on 2018 First-Half Result

After the first six months, PNJ gained VND 7,331 bn in revenue, an increase of 34% yoy. Gross profit reached VND 1,325 bn while profit before tax was VND 637 bn, which increased respectively 42% and 35% compared to 2017. In Q2 2018, PNJ’s net revenue reached VND 3,188 bn, increasing 38% yoy. Gross profit and profit before tax reached VND 561 bn and VND 219 bn respectively, which represented an increase of 43% and 34% compared to Q2 2017.

NTP- Remains on Track Amid Input Price Hike

NTP has experienced a difficult Q2/2018 due to input price hike. Even though its Q2’s revenue went up by 20% YoY, costs of sales rose by over 33%, taking NTP’s Q2 gross margin to 26%, the lowest since Q1/2019. Nevertheless, NTP’s sales volume tracked closely to its guidance and its 1H2018’s profit reached 42% of the annual target since input price hike had been taken into account.

Industrial Park Lease to Flourish

Industrial zone leasing activity has flourished in 1H 2018 underpinned by supporting factors, especially FDI. Given that registered FDI of USD 35.8 billion in 2017, the disbursement in 1H 2018 arrived at USD 8.37 billion (+8% YoY) while the registered capital reached USD 20.3 billion (+6% YoY). Excluding the USD 4.1 billion real estate project in Dong Anh (Ha Noi), the latter figure only came at USD 16.2 billion (-16% YoY). We, however, think that not all industrial zones benefit from ample inflows. FDI disbursement has clustered in several regions such as Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Binh Duong, Ba Ria - Vung Tau in the South or Hanoi, Bac Ninh and Hai Phong in the North. Industrial zones in these areas are large in scale and have well-developed infrastructure. Most of them have recorded positive results in 1H 2018 such as the industrial zone in Dong Nai, leased about 80 ha, accounting for 80% of the year target, with the registered FDI estimated at USD 903 million. Its occupancy rate is around 75%, higher than the national average of 10%.

HDB – Company Report on Jul 20, 2018

Growth drivers from customer ecosystem and consumer finance

Japan and the EU sign trade agreement

The Japan- European Union Partnership Agreement was signed in Tokyo this Tuesday. It will strengthen links between both parties and provide a base for a host of other free trade efforts, including the 11-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Pharmacy Chain – Lack of a Supportive Environment

Recently, retailers such as MWG and FRT have started to move into pharmaceutical retail. In particular, we see that FRT's Long Chau chain has got off on the right foot. However, the pharmacy chains model still faces many difficulties due to mediocre market size and a lack of a supportive environment.