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Update on real estate companies’ AGM

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calendar green icon09-05-2018
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: Real Estate
: Others
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In recent annual general shareholders’ meeting, many real estate companies have announced their business plans for the whole year. Generally, companies set high targets for earning, which is around 50% higher than the previous year on average. We suppose that the plans can be completely feasible and achievable, because many projects are approaching their handover phases, creating a driving force for revenues and profits.

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MWG: Updates on Bach Hoa Xanh

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calendar green icon08-05-2018
: MWG
: Retailing
: Others
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In Q1 2018, MWG opened 72 Bach Hoa Xanh stores, added to the total 355 stores. The total revenue was VND 606 Bn and EBITDA of VND 60 Bn. The monthly average revenue per store is VND 700 Mn with the gross margin of 14%, still far from reaching the target of VND 1 Bn in revenue and 14% in gross margin. It seems that the low margin is still a big concern for MWG.

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Updates on Industrial Properties

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calendar green icon07-05-2018
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: Real Estate
: Others
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The potential for industrial real estate is becoming enormous given the increasing flows of FDI and the expansion of domestic production. However, Vietnamese developers have to face intense competition with other industrial park operators in ASEAN countries, especially Indonesia who has been offering great incentives to industrial investors.

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Vietnam Government Bond Yields Might Bottom Out

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calendar green icon04-05-2018
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: Others
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What happened:

  • After decreasing for a while, bond yields went up significantly in the secondary market, especially 10Y yields who rose by over 50 bps to nearly 4.7%.
  • In the primary market, VST’s auctions were quiet and did not reach the amount of issuance planned for Q1 2018. Vietnam’s CPI is still under control.
  • Vietnam 5Y CDS have surged for almost a month and reached 141.7, a level not seen since August 2017.
  • ON interest rates, a proxy for short-term interest rates almost doubled in a month.

Opinion:

  • VGB yields might bottom out after a period of continuous decrease.
  • VGB trading yields are very sensitive to the FED’s monetary policy decision.
  • The government’s plan on reducing average lending rate will face obstacles in the context of a tighter monetary policy environment. Therefore, we think that that if the government can keep interest rates stable at current levels, it would be a show of success.
  • The gap between VGB 10Y and 2Y yields increased because the latter increased more slowly than the former. VGB 2Y yields benefited from the monetary policy of the SBV.

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Opinion- NAFTA and the Sierra Club

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calendar green icon03-05-2018
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: Bernard Lapointe
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NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement between Canada, the US and Mexico) has been on the news since before President Trump was elected. The agreement went into effect in early 1994 and was preceded by the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement, signed in 1989. This author worked on the latter as a graduate student. 

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Q1 Earning Season Recap

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calendar green icon02-05-2018
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: Others
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We took a quick look at the earnings of 478/765 companies annoucing their results.

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Opinion: The Dollar, US Treasuries and ASEAN Currencies

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calendar green icon02-05-2018
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: Bernard Lapointe
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Backtrack about a year ago when the market started speculating that the FED might be a bit ‘behind the curve’ in its handling of monetary policy, the Dollar (as measured by DXY) was at around 99 – see Figure 1). It fell by 10% to a low of 89 by the first quarter of 2018 then rebounded in April.

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Vietnam's Retail Trend in 2018

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calendar green icon27-04-2018
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: Consumer Durables, Retailing
: Others
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In the context of the slowing down in the mobile phone and electronic markets, big retailers such as MWG, FRT and DGW are seeking for opportunities in another markets. These are the markets that have high growth potential and above all, there are no major competitors in the industry. While MWG is betting on retailing food with Bach Hoa Xanh, DGW and FRT aims to a less risky markets which is pharmaceutical products. This trend also promotes the development of modern retail and Omni-channel in Vietnam.

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NKG- Stable Operations Despite Shortcoming Q1 Earnings

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calendar green icon26-04-2018
: NKG
: Materials
: Others
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Nam Kim Steel JSC (NKG) has released its Q1/2018 financial statements, achieving revenues of VND 3,600 billion, +50% yoy. However, NPAT is only VND 121 billion, down 22% yoy. According to the information disclosed at the AGM, NKG sold over 207,000 tons of steel, equivalent to an increase of 46% over the same period last year thanks to the launch of new GI/GL lines.

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FRT – Q1 2018 Result Update

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calendar green icon24-04-2018
: FRT
: Consumer Durables
: Others
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Despite the challenging mobile phone market, FRT still managed to grow well in the 1st quarter, revenue growth rate was 17% YoY, while NPAT gained a growth rate of 32% thanks to adjustments in product portfolio, focusing more on accessories and services that have high gross margin (29%).

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PPC – Update on Q1 2018 Business Results

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calendar green icon23-04-2018
: PPC
: Utilities
: Others
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Despite a 34% growth in the bottom line, from a high base in Q1 2017, it seems that PPC’s earnings report in the first quarter this year still failed to beat market expectations. This might explain why the stock dropped 8% right after the financial report was released. However, with our forecast of a 23% NPAT growth, we still believe that 2018 would be a good year for PPC.

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REE - Reseult Update Report Released on 23 April 2018

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calendar green icon23-04-2018
: REE
: Utilities
: Others
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With strong experience in management in that sector and the company’s constructive attitude toward shareholders, we consider REE as an efficient way to get exposure to the power and water utilities sector. In 2018, the catalyst in this business segment will be the contribution from new associate companies including CHP and VCW, which account for 11% of its earnings. Meanwhile, VIID and SGR with expected earnings growth of 60% and 43%, respectively, would contribute 11% to the total NPAT of VND 1,683 billion, corresponding to EPS of VND 5,374.

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