DRC – Q3 2022 Results are expected to exceed the quarterly plan
19-09-2022
19-09-2022: DRC
: Automobiles
: An Nguyen
Tags: Business Update
- DRC set Q3 2022 net sales and pre-tax profit targets at VND1,190 bn (+3.7% QoQ; +28.1% YoY) and VND86 bn (-18.1% QoQ; +103.9% YoY), respectively. Total sales value of July & August-2022 are VND957 bn (met 77.5% of Q3 2022 ‘sales target).
- We suppose that DRC will exceed its Q3 2022 business plan based on 1) positive business results in July & August 2022; 2) strong growth of automotive production in Brazil and the US markets as the shortage chip problem started to ease since 2H2022; and 3) increasing frequency of domestic logistic activities after Covid-19.
- Because DRC ‘s results in Jul & Aug were better than our estimation, we are reviewing our forecast that may generate a new target price. Our current target price for the next 12 months is around VND 34,700, combining FCFF valuation model (50%) and multiple comparisons (50%) with an applied P/E of 13.9x.
4 Despite the rainy season, electricity selling prices in CGM stand at a high level
16-09-2022
: HND, PPC
: Utilities
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- Total electricity volume in 8M2022 reached 182 bn kWh, +5% YoY. In Aug 2022, electricity consumption climbed by 11% YoY owing to the low base in 2021 – strict lockdown in 3Q2021.
- The hydropower group outperformed during 8M2022 while thermal groups held modest mobilization rates.
- Price in competitive market stands at a high level even in the rainy season, the main driver from the coal burning group.
- We foresee that in case coal input price stay at a such high level in the time to come, and the dry season is going to come back, the selling price in CGM is going to stand at a high level. From that, large hydropower plants will be the main beneficiaries, following by gas thermal plants.
VHC – August fillet exports remained high YoY despite a slight decrease MoM
15-09-2022
: VHC
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
Tags:
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Monetary policy: Finding a new balance
14-09-2022
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- External pressures are stronger than expected
- The difficulty in regulating the monetary policy of the SBV
- Find a new balance
- Cautious new credit
SIP – The quiet giant
13-09-2022
: SIP
: Real Estate
: Le Tu Quoc Hung
Tags:
- SIP’s IP portfolio has a total area of up to 3,207 ha in prime location. In particular, the available for lease area is approximately 1,000 hectares. This is enough supply for SIP to exploit in the long term.
- Residential real estate and utility services segments are oriented to sustainable development in the long term. We see that SIP is oriented to follow the model of 1 closed ecosystem that deploys other complementary business activities to support industrial park’s operation.
- In 2022, SIP plans consolidated revenue of VND 5,200 billion and NPAT of VND 668 billion, down 7% and 26% YoY respectively. In the first 6 months of 2022, SIP recorded revenue of VND 3,086.7 billion, up 3% and completed 59.4% of the year plan. Meanwhile, NPAT reached VND 501.26 billion, down 9% YoY and completed 60% of the year plan.
- We saw SIP as a potential investment not only in terms of land bank but also the ability to exploit accompanying services to increase the added – value for the firm. Besides, a healthy balance sheet will help SIP maintain an annual cash dividend of at least 2,000 VND/share. After adjusting the unearned revenue target to synchronize the accounting method with other peers, the adjusted P/B of SIP is 1.33, which is lower than the industry average of 2.
Apple iPhone 14's early release date could help phone boost ICT retailers and distributors’ iPhone revenue in Q4-2022
12-09-2022
: MWG
: Retailing
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Apple revealed the iPhone 14 series on September 7, 1 week earlier than the iPhone 13’s announcement date in last year, with starting prices staying the same.
- The iPhone 14, 14 Pro, and 14 Pro Max products are expected to be available in Vietnam from October 7 or October 14 (3-4 weeks after the release date of tier 1 markets).
- ICT retailers will have 1-2 weeks more to sell new iPhone products in Q4 this year compared to the same period last year. This, combined with the fact that iPhone products (1) make up the majority of retailers' total Apple products sales (~2/3) and (2) generally record good purchasing power in the first quarter of launching, will significantly boost Apple's revenue of ICT retailers, and distributors in Q4-2022.
DXG – Business operations affected by market
09-09-2022
: DXG
: Real Estate
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- In 2Q2022, DXG’s revenue and NPATMI posted a significant fall compared with the same period in 2021 with VND 1,550 bn (-56.5% YoY) and VND 133 bn (-55.4% YoY), respectively. In which, DXG's two main segments which are real estate and brokerage services being significantly affected by the market's difficulties.
- In 2H2022, we estimate the revenue and NPATMI to be VND 3,877 bn (+16% HoH or +8% YoY) and VND 476 bn (+18% HoH or +45% YoY). In 2022, we forecast the revenue and NPATMI to be VND 7.219 bn (-28% YoY) and VND 879 bn (-24% YoY), respectively, completing 66% and 75% of 2022 plan. EPS is estimated at VND 1.447/share.
DBD – Nhon Hoi anti-cancer factory continues to miss out with GMP – EU standards approval plan
08-09-2022
: DBD
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Cao Ngoc Quan
Tags:
- By the end of the first half of 2022, DBD recorded net revenue and PBT of VND 696 billion (+16% YoY) and VND 135 billion (+17.6% YoY), completing 43% and 63% of the annual plan, respectively. The two main sales channels were ETC (hospital) and OTC (pharmacy) with positive growth, recording net revenue of VND 369 billion (+13% YoY) and VND 257 billion (+13% YoY).
- DBD has been expanding coverage in drugstores thanks to the data ownership of 40,000 pharmacies that has been standardized to build a Master Coverage Plan (MCP) for the sales team. The company pushed the number of retailers up from 14,800 in 2021 to 17,500 in 6M2022.
- The process of approving the GMP – EU standards for Nhon Hoi anti-cancer factory could not be completed with the plan because the approval of the factory abroad has not been given priority by the European health organizations. The company set new plans to achieve GMP – EU standards for the production line of injectables and pills (belonging to Nhon Hoi anti-cancer factory) in June 2023 and March 2024, respectively.
The drilling market is gaining strength
07-09-2022
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Vu Tran
Tags:
- Demand for drilling rigs worldwide, especially in the Middle East, has increased sharply.
- There is a shortage of rig supply as there has been no newbuild rig in the last few years while the older rigs have left the market.
- The rig supply-demand gap is forecasted to narrow until mid-year 2024, which will support the global rig day rate as well as in Southeast Asia. Currently, the rig day rates and utilization rates in Southeast Asia are higher compared to the pre-Covid period.
PC1 – Financial expenses ate most of gross profit in 2Q2022
06-09-2022
: PC1
: Power
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:
- In 2Q2022, PC1 posted revenue and NPATMI of VND 1.518 bn (or USD 63.3 mn) and VND 63 bn (or USD 3 mn), -49% YoY and -81% YoY, respectively. PC1 hit a 3-year trough in terms of NPATMI. We forecast core earnings in 2022 to grow by 10% YoY (excluding financial income from revaluation in 2021). Revenue and NPATMI are forecasted to be VND 7.342 bn and VND 477 bn (or USD 306 bn and 20 mn), -25% YoY and -31% YoY, respectively.
- Earnings are expected to recover and climb to a new high level owing to (1) The power construction segment will likely benefit from the upcoming wind power market; (2) Nickel mine will be the growth engine in the medium term; (3) Numerous real estate projects are waiting to contribute to profits.
- We raised our target price for by 25% to VND 43,800 factoring the nickel mine and its industrial park real estate, offering an upside of 6% compared to the closing price as of Sep 06th, 2022. Hence, investors can ACCUMULATE this stock when the market encounters a deep correction.
Flat Steel Sector – Prices have started to rebound but profit recovery might take long
05-09-2022
: HPG
: Materials
: Tam Pham
Tags:
- Overseas prices have stopped falling; domestic prices started to regain.
- Domestic consumption to recover from September amid high competition.
- Gloomy outlook for the bottom line of flat steel producers in Q3 before sunshine comes from Q4.
- We currently have an ACCUMULATE recommendation on NKG with the target price of VND 25,100/share.
LTG – Plant protection business: challenges in 2022 create growth opportunities for 2023
31-08-2022
: LTG
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: An Nguyen
Tags:
- 1H2022 revenue of the plant protection business (also named LTV) of Loc Troi Group (Upcom: LTG) had a negative growth of -6.6% YoY to VND1,948 bn. In Dec-2021, LTG terminated the partnership with Syngenta (accounting for ~30% of total sales of LTV), dragged down the revenue of LTV in 2022.
- To fuel long-term growth of this business without Syngenta, LTG is restructuring its selling policy. Consequently, the Q2/2022 gross margin of the LTV segment went down to 20.6% (-2,890 bps QoQ; -1,450 bps YoY). We expect that LTG will continue extending the new selling policy in 2H2022. As a result, 2022 gross margin of LTV will have a hard time to improve.
- We believe that the 2022 performance will reflect all of the negative effect of the termination of the Syngenta partnership. 2023 results are expected to show growth due to 1) 2022 low-base; 2) higher market share thanks to the successful selling strategy; and 3) LTG ‘s agriculture ecosystem.
