GMD - Full impact of COVID-19 to be felt in Q2 FY20

GMD announced a 4.9% decline in Q1 FY20 NPAT-MI to VND 141 Bn, ahead of our forecast mainly on the back of a surge in gain from JVs, financial income and significantly lower minority interests. Though Q1 earnings have achieved 29% of our full-year forecast, we expect the negative impact of COVID-19 to be fully felt in Q2 FY20 and linger throughout the year, compromising total container volume throughput. Hence, we cut our earnings forecast for FY20 by 24%. Recommend ACCUMULATE, TP lowered to VND 22,000 (from VND 26,000) based on the SOTP valuation method.

Real estate market update

Q1 2020: The real estate market faced headwinds in the early part of 2020. In term of total condominium units sold, 1Q 2020 was the worst quarter in both Hanoi and HCMC since the last five years. Both cities saw a decrease of 72% and 38% YoY, respectively. Demand  weakened while supply was still limited due to the effects of Covid-19 and prolonged legal statuses.

Update on Vietnam’s international trade in April, the month of social distancing

Harsh conditions in April where Vietnamese coped with the order of social distancing. General economic activities slowed and employees stayed at home on furlough. It was not surprising that key macro indicators got weaker. However, looking at the data, there are signs of a promising recovery as the country can benefit from the current supply chain disruption.

PVT - Seem the worst is behind

In 2Q2020, we believe that the revenue will be lower than 1Q2020 due to the low demand but profitability will improve as the gross margin will no longer be low and PVT is expected not to incur an FX loss.  We forecast that sales and NPATMI will be VND1,488bn and VND76bn respectively in 2Q2020.

STK – 1Q2020 Business Result Update

While the entire textile industry’s value chain is badly affected by the pandemic in 2020, STK is not an exception and the worst time, in our opinion, will be 2Q when many large markets enter the drastic phase of fighting the pandemic. Consumers' uncertainty about the economic prospects after the pandemic could lead to lower spending on some types of goods, including apparels. Low demand for apparels would indirectly affect yarn demand. However, we believe that STK can somewhat limit the impact of this trend thanks to (1) their production shift toward highly profitable recycled yarn (2) the relocation of textile production from China to Vietnam and other Asian countries and (3) the increasing trend of using domestically made yarn by Vietnamese garment companies to take advantage of EVFTA tariffs incentives.

We estimate STK’s fair value at VND 21,400 /share. Combined with a cash dividend of VND 1,500/share in the next 12 months, the expected return is 30% compared to the closing price on May 12th, 2020. We maintain our BUY recommendation. The target price has been slightly adjusted by 7% compared to what it was in the 2020 Strategic Report to reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

HSG – Net income grew impressively despite COVID-19

1H/FY19-20 results

In 1H/FY19-20, HSG’s profit growth was strong despite lower selling volume. HSG’s net income increased by 228% and reached VND 382 billion, equivalent to 96% of its annual net income plan. The surge in its net income was supported by HRC prices, which increased by 23% from USD 420/ton in October/2020 to USD 518/ton in late-January/2020. Regarding selling volume, HSG sold roughly 700 thousand tons of products, of which 27 thousand tons were plastic pipes (+14% YoY). Social-distancing for COVID-19 had a limited negative impact on HSG’s selling volume, as coated steel and steel pipes sales volume decreased by 5% and 13% respectively. In April, its selling volume was still stable and similar compared to March/2020.

HSG expects to earn VND 200 billion in the remaining of FY19-20, of which VND 100-120 billion will be gained in 3Q/FY19-20.

VCB - Results Update Report 1Q2020

Despite the anticipated slowdown due to the negative impact of Covid-19, we expect the bank’s growth to recover quickly upon an economic recovery. We believe that its sector-leading position, solid balance sheet, and conservative approach (both in the past and during the virus situation), would allow the bank to withstand the current storm.

With a lower 2020 earnings growth forecast and less favorable conditions in the stock market, we revise VCB’s target price to VND85,000, which is 10% lower than the latest in our 2020 Strategy report (VND95,000). Coupled with the plan of a cash dividend at VND800/share (which has been shared by the bank that will be kept until further official instruction by SBV), this target price translates to an upside of 14% from the closing price on 12 May 2020. We thereby have an ACCUMULATE recommendation on the stock.

SBV urges more decisive and timely implementation of forbearance measures

We maintain our view on credit growth and NIM movement. Regarding credit, we do not expect a too significantly higher credit quota considering SBV’s view to maintain credit quality of the entire sector, a long with the need to control inflation. As such, we maintain out forecast that credit growth limits to banks would rise by 2-3ppt versus the initial quotas given by the SBV at the beginning of this year. Accordingly, credit growth at each bank under our watch list might reach from 13% to 15% by end of the year (except for BID and CTG who might find their growth below this range). Regarding NIM, we still forecast it to remain the same or slightly decrease for most banks, mainly due to a stronger downside caused by loan forbearances than the potential upside by policy rate cuts. Overall, we expect that bank’s net interest income would continue to slowdown further since 2Q. Amongst those, state-owned banks is likely to witness a stronger negative impact on interest income than their private counterparts, due to their more proactive roles in cutting lending rates or tolerate loans to support distressed customers, as per specific request by SBV.

Foreign Investors Net Bought G-bonds in April

There are noticeable changes in Vietnam’s bond markets in the first four months of the year. In the primary market, Vietnam State Treasury (VST) has struggled to complete its issuance plan due to a significant drop in demand. Meanwhile, it’s likely a turning point in the secondary market in which foreign investors have turned buyers in April after two consecutive months of net selling in February and March. Bond yields are retreating.

Novaland update

Revenue and profit guidance: The company has not changed its profit target for whole year, although the overall businesses have been affected by the Covid-19 epidemic. Accordingly, revenue and net profit will be VND 14,000 billion (+ 27% YoY) and VND 3,300 billion (-4% YoY), respectively. The company plans to hand over a total of 4,500 units during this year.

MSN – Q1/2020 result: profits decline despite revenue doubling due to the Vincommerce acquisition

In Q1/2020, MSN’s consolidated net revenue increased 116%, mainly due to the consolidation of Vincommerce (VCM) and strong growth from Masan Consumer Holdings (MCH).

BMP – Solid core business is unaffected

1Q/2020 update

BMP sold 24,330 tons of plastic pipes during the first quarter of 2020, 8.9% higher YoY. Its 1Q2020 revenue and NPAT came at VND 1,020 and VND 102 billion respectively, 9.4% and 12.1% higher YoY. The growth came from a newly exploited market, which is the irrigation in the Mekong Delta. As per BMP’s management, the long drought in the area has caused a rise in the demand for new irrigation systems, of which plastic pipe is a common component.